Scout Investments

Mid-cap opportunities in a fairly priced market

An attractive environment for active managers.

 

Mid-cap opportunities in a fairly priced market

Despite continued economic policy uncertainty, U.S. equity indices have recovered significantly from market lows. While it’s certainly possible that the recent volatility was the beginning of a new global order as some predict, we believe it may more accurately be viewed as a violent, yet temporary, storm that is receding rapidly.

Various constraints, especially the bond and currency markets, reined in the president’s preference for high tariffs and a rapid shift toward domestic production, so the administration appears to have pivoted to tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal expansion.

This welcome shift, combined with a Fed that has room to cut interest rates, especially if inflation slows, has greatly reduced the amount of risk priced into U.S. equity markets. In general, our work shows markets to be fairly valued, so focusing on our active, bottom-up process may be the best way to uncover attractive mid-cap opportunities in the second half of the year.

  • The markets may be signaling a more favorable environment for equities as we move beyond peak tariff risk.

  • The market is clearly pricing in less risk than in early to mid-April, likely due to several favorable developments. First, policy uncertainty appears to have peaked, income tax cuts are likely and fiscal restraint no longer appears to be a priority. Second, the Fed also has room to cut interest rates. Finally, cheaper oil prices may help bring inflation down.

  • We see a favorable environment for active management as broad equity markets look appropriately priced, while we believe that some individual stocks appear to offer attractive risk-reward profiles.

 


 

Amid gyrating uncertainty, volatility surged, then receded rapidly
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index vs. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX)

Chart showing U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index vs. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX)

Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/11/25.

Risk Information:

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Many investors consider bonds to be “risk free” investment vehicles. Historically, bonds have indeed provided less volatility and less risk of loss of capital than has equity investing. However, there are many factors that may affect the risk and return profile of a fixed-income portfolio. The two most prominent factors are interest-rate movements and the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds issued by the U.S. government have significantly less risk of default than those issued by corporations and municipalities. However, the overall return on government bonds tends to be less than these other types of fixed-income securities. Investors should pay careful attention to the types of fixed-income securities that comprise their portfolio and remember that, as with all investments, there is the risk of the loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Investments in mid-cap companies generally involve greater risks than investing in larger capitalization companies. These companies often have narrower commercial markets and more limited managerial and financial resources than larger, more established companies. As a result, their performance can be more volatile and they face greater risk of business failure, which could increase the volatility of a strategy’s portfolio. Additionally, small-cap companies may have less market liquidity than larger companies.

Definitions

Fiscal policy refers to the tax collection and spending a government uses to influence its country’s economy.

The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index tracks trends related to economic policy uncertainty based on articles from a panel of 10 major newspapers (USA Today, the Miami Herald, the Chicago Tribune, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Boston Globe, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Dallas Morning News, the Houston Chronicle, and the Wall Street Journal) that contain one or more terms related to economics, policy, or uncertainty.

The VIX – officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index – is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments.

About Scout Investments

For more than three decades, Scout’s investment teams have actively managed a distinct suite of equity strategies by applying repeatable, time-tested processes steeped in rigorous research and analysis.

M-767761 Exp. 6/30/2026