Chartwell Investment Partners

Artificial intelligence, broad equity exposure, and inflation protection

Artificial intelligence, broad equity exposure, and inflation protection

Artificial intelligence (AI) and data center capital expenditures have become structurally important drivers of the US economy. By 2025, AI-linked investment in information processing equipment, software, and research and development (R&D) accounted for roughly 4% of gross domestic product (GDP). More notably, AI development has contributed a disproportionately large share of incremental GDP growth. From a capital formation standpoint, these categories now represent 10% to 15% of total US private non-residential investment. This drives strong demand for semiconductors, power infrastructure, and construction. At the same time, bottlenecks are emerging, with mixed progress in resolving them. For example, gas turbines for power generation are effectively sold out through 2030, and exceptionally strong demand for memory chips is pushing spot prices sharply higher.

These dynamics continue to benefit large technology companies, but they also create tailwinds for a broader set of industries. As a result, equity market leadership has begun to rotate: Value has outpaced growth, and small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps. AI infrastructure investment has accelerated against a backdrop of deglobalization, a shrinking labor force, underinvestment in natural resources, and ongoing disruptions to Middle East energy and petrochemical supply chains. Meanwhile, commodity prices have risen.

Inflation could remain elevated and even intensify, requiring investors to reconsider conventional portfolio allocations. In this environment, we favor equity market exposure across styles and capitalization ranges based on our expectation for continued broadening. Also attractive are short-duration high yield bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), as these can provide important diversification benefits during inflationary environments.

Key takeaways

  • AI infrastructure investment continues to drive economic growth.

  • Positive demand impacts are expanding, boosting revenue and earnings outlooks for a variety of companies. In our view, this highlights the potential benefits of broad equity market exposure across styles and capitalization ranges.

  • Inflation remains elevated and could intensify given myriad supply constraints. We favor short-duration high yield bonds and TIPS as hedges against inflation.

 


 

Small caps and commodities outpacing large caps

Trailing 1-year returns through May

Chart showing Trailing 1-year returns through May

Source: Bloomberg, as of 5/29/2026.

Risk Information:

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures

There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Many investors consider bonds to be “risk free” investment vehicles. Historically, bonds have indeed provided less volatility and less risk of loss of capital than has equity investing. However, there are many factors that may affect the risk and return profile of a fixed-income portfolio. The two most prominent factors are interest-rate movements and the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds issued by the U.S. government have significantly less risk of default than those issued by corporations and municipalities. However, the overall return on government bonds tends to be less than these other types of fixed-income securities. Investors should pay careful attention to the types of fixed-income securities that comprise their portfolio and remember that, as with all investments, there is the risk of the loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Indices

Bloomberg Commodity Index — Reflects movements in commodity futures prices. The index is calculated on an excess return basis and rebalances annually weighted two-thirds by trading volume and one-third by world production. Weight caps are applied at the commodity, sector, and group level for diversification.

Russell 2000® Growth Index — Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values.

Russell 2000® Value Index — Measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values.

Russell 1000® Index — Measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which represents approximately 93% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000® Index.

BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG INDICES and Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices (the “Indices”) are trademarks or service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited, the administrator of the Indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Indices. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy or completeness of any data or information relating to the Indices.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2026. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. Russell® is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

About Chartwell Investment Partners

Chartwell Investment Partners believes that actively managed strategies with high conviction and lower turnover will generate a consistent pattern of portfolio returns over the long term. Our portfolio managers take a long-term perspective with their investments, maintain focused portfolios, and strive for increased active share of their holdings to deliver attractive investment performance.