Constraints create opportunity
Since the start of the war in Iran, US investors have had to contend with high oil prices, rising inflation risks, and increased odds that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Despite these concerns, spending on artificial intelligence (AI) data centers has helped keep the economy growing.
A year ago, AI capital expenditures (capex) were expected to be around $450 billion in both 2026 and 2027, according to Morgan Stanley. Now their analysts expect the top five hyperscalers to spend roughly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.16 trillion in 2027. This huge surge in spending is driven by rocketing consumption of AI tokens led by agentic AI workloads. The rush of demand is causing critical supply shortages that include memory chips, optics, power, and labor. While many of these bottlenecks are now well understood, we believe identifying the next set of potential constraints — and what can help solve them — may well point to future AI winners.
We see numerous companies addressing these shortages, some of which still do not reflect strong earnings potential over the coming years. Examples include behind-the-meter power turbine suppliers, electrical engineering firms, electrical suppliers, power semiconductors, memory companion chips, and optical solution providers.
We also see an opportunity in AI infrastructure design changes that we believe remains under the radar. As AI server racks move to 1 megawatt and beyond, data center power systems will be transitioned from 400-volt to 800-volt architectures, driving the need for more advanced chips and substrates that can withstand greater heat and improve power efficiency. Although this transition is not expected to begin until 2027, we believe now is the time to position ahead of this next wave.
Key takeaways
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The Iran conflict has created economic risks, but AI data center spending has helped maintain economic growth.
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AI capex estimates have risen substantially over the last year.
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Identifying companies that can supply highly constrained markets may continue to provide strong investment returns.
Data centers' growing appetite for electricity
Projected US commercial electricity use by end market
Source: US Energy Information Administration, as of 6/25/25, Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Reference case: Electricity use for commercial computing could surpass space cooling, ventilation - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), accessed 6/11/2026. Links are provided for informational purposes only,