Scout Investments

Constraints create opportunity

Constraints create opportunity

Since the start of the war in Iran, US investors have had to contend with high oil prices, rising inflation risks, and increased odds that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. Despite these concerns, spending on artificial intelligence (AI) data centers has helped keep the economy growing.

A year ago, AI capital expenditures (capex) were expected to be around $450 billion in both 2026 and 2027, according to Morgan Stanley. Now their analysts expect the top five hyperscalers to spend roughly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.16 trillion in 2027. This huge surge in spending is driven by rocketing consumption of AI tokens led by agentic AI workloads. The rush of demand is causing critical supply shortages that include memory chips, optics, power, and labor. While many of these bottlenecks are now well understood, we believe identifying the next set of potential constraints — and what can help solve them — may well point to future AI winners.

We see numerous companies addressing these shortages, some of which still do not reflect strong earnings potential over the coming years. Examples include behind-the-meter power turbine suppliers, electrical engineering firms, electrical suppliers, power semiconductors, memory companion chips, and optical solution providers.

We also see an opportunity in AI infrastructure design changes that we believe remains under the radar. As AI server racks move to 1 megawatt and beyond, data center power systems will be transitioned from 400-volt to 800-volt architectures, driving the need for more advanced chips and substrates that can withstand greater heat and improve power efficiency. Although this transition is not expected to begin until 2027, we believe now is the time to position ahead of this next wave.

Key takeaways

  • The Iran conflict has created economic risks, but AI data center spending has helped maintain economic growth.

  • AI capex estimates have risen substantially over the last year.

  • Identifying companies that can supply highly constrained markets may continue to provide strong investment returns.

 


 

Data centers' growing appetite for electricity

Projected US commercial electricity use by end market

Chart showing Projected US commercial electricity use by end market

 

Source: US Energy Information Administration, as of 6/25/25, Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Reference case: Electricity use for commercial computing could surpass space cooling, ventilation - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), accessed 6/11/2026. Links are provided for informational purposes only,

Risk Information:

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures

There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Many investors consider bonds to be “risk free” investment vehicles. Historically, bonds have indeed provided less volatility and less risk of loss of capital than has equity investing. However, there are many factors that may affect the risk and return profile of a fixed-income portfolio. The two most prominent factors are interest-rate movements and the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds issued by the U.S. government have significantly less risk of default than those issued by corporations and municipalities. However, the overall return on government bonds tends to be less than these other types of fixed-income securities. Investors should pay careful attention to the types of fixed-income securities that comprise their portfolio and remember that, as with all investments, there is the risk of the loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

About Scout Investments

For more than three decades, Scout’s investment teams have actively managed a distinct suite of equity strategies by applying repeatable, time-tested processes steeped in rigorous research and analysis.