Chartwell Investment Partners

Gold, natural resources, and TIPS for hedging against inflation

Gold, natural resources, and TIPS for hedging against inflation

Inflation remains at the forefront of investors’ minds, and for good reason — it is likely to stay elevated in a world where global trade is slowing, labor demographics are changing, and natural resources are becoming scarcer. Stocks and bonds are likely to become more correlated in such an environment, and investor portfolios may benefit from diversification through some historically underutilized asset classes, including Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), cyclical equities, and precious metals.

TIPS, issued by the U.S. Treasury, are an attractive investment in higher-inflation environments because they can act as an effective hedge. Their maturities range from 2 to 30 years, and while the inflation adjustments on each of these securities are identical from month to month, longer-maturity TIPS face the same real interest rate risk as any other long-dated bond. We think it will be important to stay in the 1- to 5-year maturity range, which is more closely correlated with moves in inflation.

Investments in natural resource companies can also act as an inflation hedge. These equities can see outsized gains in operating leverage and free cash flow when their underlying commodities, which are often correlated with inflation, move higher.

Lastly, precious metals can act as a diversifying asset class for investors worried about the dollar’s purchasing power. Although gold has rallied significantly over the last 18 months, central banks across the globe continue to diversify away from U.S. dollars and into precious metals. Given their scale, shifts in central bank holdings historically unfold over longer periods. We would expect the upward pressure on gold prices to continue in the coming years.

Key takeaways

  • TIPS adjust their principal on a pro-rata daily basis determined by the prior month’s non-seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

  • Like other nominal Treasuries, TIPS still face realrate risk, making it important to maintain a shorter duration if your return objective is to keep up with inflation.

  • Although natural resource companies can be effective hedges against inflation pressures, different industries will outperform at various points in the economic cycle. Actively managing exposure will be important.

  • The energy and materials sectors combined make up less than 5% of the S&P 500 Index, which means that many passive investors could miss out on a turnaround of performance in these under-allocated sectors.

 


 

Higher inflation makes diversification harder
Trailing 12-month core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI)

Chart showing Trailing 12-month core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI)

Source: Bloomberg, as of 8/12/2025

Risk Information:

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures

There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Many investors consider bonds to be “risk free” investment vehicles. Historically, bonds have indeed provided less volatility and less risk of loss of capital than has equity investing. However, there are many factors that may affect the risk and return profile of a fixed-income portfolio. The two most prominent factors are interest-rate movements and the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds issued by the U.S. government have significantly less risk of default than those issued by corporations and municipalities. However, the overall return on government bonds tends to be less than these other types of fixed-income securities. Investors should pay careful attention to the types of fixed-income securities that comprise their portfolio and remember that, as with all investments, there is the risk of the loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.

Definitions

Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics bases the index on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 households and 22,000 retailers.

Correlation — The degree to which two securities or variables move in relation to each other.

Cyclical stocks — Stocks with prices influenced by macroeconomic changes in the economy and are known for following the economy as it cycles through expansion, peak, recession, and recovery.

Duration — A bond’s yield, coupon, final maturity, and call features incorporated into a single number, expressed in years, that indicates how price-sensitive a bond or portfolio is to changes in interest rates. Bonds with higher durations carry more risk and have higher price volatility than bonds with lower durations.

Hedge — An investment or investment strategy that is designed to lessen the potential for losses in other investments. The price of an investment considered to be a hedge often moves in the opposite direction of the prices of the investments being hedged.

Maturity date — The date when a debt comes due and all principal and/or interest must be repaid to creditors.

Real interest rate — An interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Once adjusted, it reflects the real cost of funds to a borrower and the real yield to a lender or to an investor. A real interest rate reflects the rate of time preference for current goods over future goods. For an investment, a real interest rate is calculated as the difference between the nominal interest rate, which is not adjusted for inflation, and the inflation rate.

Real-rate risk — The risk that changes in real interest rates will affect the market value of fixed-income securities. Rising real rates typically cause bond prices to decline, while falling real rates tend to increase prices.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) — Investments intended to provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS instrument increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, investors are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.

Indices

S&P 500 Index — Measures change in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividends reinvested. The S&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

About Chartwell Investment Partners

Chartwell Investment Partners believes that actively managed strategies with high conviction and lower turnover will generate a consistent pattern of portfolio returns over the long term. Our portfolio managers take a long-term perspective with their investments, maintain focused portfolios, and strive for increased active share of their holdings to deliver attractive investment performance.

M-853958 Exp. 5/15/2026