Cougar Global Investments

Why investors should care about healthcare

Why investors should care about healthcare

After some of the best years of returns in the history of the S&P 500 Index, where should investors look next? We believe the healthcare sector will offer opportunity in 2026.

There are concerns: The healthcare sector has underperformed the S&P 500 Index by more than 15% each year for the past three years. It’s vulnerable to political whims and populist reforms that can impact earnings and margins. And it’s a top-heavy sector — 30% of the sector’s market capitalization is accounted for by just three companies, and the 10 largest companies by market capitalization make up more than 50% of the sector.

However, consider the big picture. The S&P 500 Index has exceeded 20% in annualized returns over the past three years, effectively twice its long-term average of around 10%. After that type of run, a market pullback seems statistically likely, regardless of any underlying economic themes. Since 1929, 63% of the years have had at least one 10% drawdown in the S&P 500 Index. Almost 100 years of market history suggest decent odds for investor angst in 2026.

With that backdrop in mind, healthcare has traditionally been a defensive sector with a lower beta, historically capturing less downside than the overall equity market. We also think it could offer upside — healthcare hasn’t been this attractively priced relative to the S&P 500 Index since 2012. Healthcare-related exchange-traded funds have seen more than 12 months of outflows, giving the sector plenty of room for renewed investor interest. And lastly, healthcare is seeing a better environment for mergers and acquisitions as a result of AI-driven innovation, especially in biotech and genomics. We believe the healthcare sector is a less volatile field, offers a reasonable dividend, and has the potential to deliver portfolio upside in 2026.

Key takeaways

  • Prepare for a correction — in any given year, the odds of a 10% equity market correction have historically been around 60%.

  • Biotech could be a source of AI-driven innovation in 2026 and beyond.

  • When constructing portfolios, healthcare is a defensive sector with a low beta.

  • The healthcare sector is generally unloved, but also favorably priced and necessary for an aging society.

 


 

Healthcare traditionally is a defensive sector
S&P Healthcare Sector total return relative to S&P 500 Index total return

Chart showing S&P Healthcare Sector total return relative to S&P 500 Index total return

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, as of 11/7/2025.

Risk Information:

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures

There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Many investors consider bonds to be “risk free” investment vehicles. Historically, bonds have indeed provided less volatility and less risk of loss of capital than has equity investing. However, there are many factors that may affect the risk and return profile of a fixed-income portfolio. The two most prominent factors are interest-rate movements and the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds issued by the U.S. government have significantly less risk of default than those issued by corporations and municipalities. However, the overall return on government bonds tends to be less than these other types of fixed-income securities. Investors should pay careful attention to the types of fixed-income securities that comprise their portfolio and remember that, as with all investments, there is the risk of the loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Definitions

Beta — A measure of the volatility or systemic risk of a security, group of securities, or portfolio compared with another security, group of securities, portfolio, or the market as a whole.

Correction — A decline in the market price of a security or index of more than 10% from its recent highs but not more than 20%.

Defensive sectors — Sectors with companies that tend to have a constant demand for their products or services, making their operations more stable during different phases of the business cycle.

Downside capture — A measure of a group of securities’ annualized performance in down markets relative to the market benchmark. It is often expressed as a capture ratio, with the ratio being calculated as the group’s return divided by the benchmark’s return, or the percentage of the benchmark’s return that was “captured” by the group.

Drawdown — A decline in the returns of a security or group of securities, as measured over a period from the peak of returns to their trough.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) — A type of security that tracks a market index, sector, commodity, or other assets, but which can be bought or sold on a stock exchange the same way a regular stock or other security can. An ETF can be structured to track a wide variety of securities, including stocks, bonds, individual commodities, diverse aggregations of securities, and specific investment strategies.

Fund flow — The net of all cash inflows and outflows into and out of a particular financial asset. It typically is measured on a quarterly or monthly basis. Investors and others look at the direction of fund flows for indications about the health of specific securities and sectors or the overall market.

Market capitalization / market cap — The total dollar market value of a company’s outstanding shares of stock.

Pullback — A temporary pause or drop in the price of a security that previously had been rising.

Total return — When measuring performance, total return is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given period of time. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends, and distributions realized over the specified period. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions, or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.

Indices

S&P 500 Index — Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

S&P 500® Health Care — Companies in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® health care sector.

About Cougar Global Investments

Cougar Global Investments is a globally oriented macro asset-class portfolio manager that uses a disciplined portfolio-construction methodology combining macroeconomic analysis with downside-risk management. Cougar Global’s guiding belief is that the goal of investing is to generate consistent compound growth.

M-853958 Exp. 5/15/2026