Scout Investments

Assessing aerospace in an uncertain credit cycle

Assessing aerospace during an uncertain credit cycle

After seeing tighter credit spreads and big runs in equity markets, some observers have interpreted low-income consumer weakness and idiosyncratic bankruptcies as signs of an impending credit cycle. Yet a cyclical recovery appears to be in the early stages for many industries, including trucking, analog semiconductors, healthcare, and the companies linked to both increased healthcare capital expenditures (capex) and to healthcare research and development. It’s also possible that the effects of 2025 ’s fed funds rate cuts have only started showing up recently. This makes it important for investors to understand where the business cycle stands heading into 2026.

In the year ahead, we expect AI investments to be supported by growing capex forecasts and exponential growth in token consumption as new AI use cases become mainstream. Unlike the internet and telecom bubble — during which more than 80% of the fiber laid was left unused — data centers are using new capacity as soon as it comes online.

We’re also at the front end of a once-in-a-generation replacement cycle for aircraft, which could affect nearly half of the global fleet. Major manufacturers have record backlogs of orders for their next-generation planes, and airlines are under pressure to modernize. The more technologically advanced aircraft are notably more fuel-efficient than their predecessors. In an industry where fuel can be a substantial component of operating costs, efficiency drives profitability.

Key takeaways

  • Central banks have cut interest rates despite relatively strong economic growth, low unemployment, and above-target inflation. Should this be a cause for concern that affects risk appetites, or will it fuel the next leg higher in equity markets?

  • Significant volatility is highly likely, but we believe AI infrastructure stocks will continue to perform well as management teams adopt new tools to drive productivity. Capex investments have been supported by strong cash flows, vendor financing, and a strong appetite from investors.

  • Aerospace demand is structurally strong — commercial traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, large legacy airlines are generating strong profits, and emerging markets in China, India, and Southeast Asia serve billions of customers who are eager to travel.

 


 

Global aircraft backlog
A historic high for new jets needed

Chart showing U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index vs. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX)

By 2024, the backlog of new aircraft needed to keep up with global demand reached nearly 17,000.

Source: IATA Sustainability and Economics, Cirium Fleets Analyzer, as of 6/20/2025. © International Air Transport Association, 2019. [IATA Chart of the Week: How many aircraft are we missing?]. All Rights Reserved. Available on IATA Economics page.

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Definitions

Artificial intelligence (AI) — A technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human learning, comprehension, problem solving, decision making, creativity, and autonomy.

Capital expenditures / capex — Monies used by a company to buy, improve, or maintain physical assets such as real estate, facilities, technology, or equipment, and may include new projects or investments.

Credit cycle — The phases that the availability of credit goes through as economic expansion and contraction affect borrowers’ access to credit. Credit cycles tend to take longer to play out than the business cycle.

Credit spread — The difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and another debt security with the same maturity but different credit quality. Also referred to as “bond spreads” or “default spreads,” credit spreads are measured in basis points, with a 1% difference in yield equaling a spread of 100 basis points. Credit spreads reflect the risk of the debt security being compared with the Treasury bond, which is considered to be risk-free.

Cyclical — Trends and changes in market conditions that occur as the economy passes through the business cycle’s stages of expansion, peak, recession, and recovery.

Federal funds rate / fed funds rate — The target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The target is the Fed’s suggested rate for commercial banks to borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight.

Hyperscalers — The largest cloud computing providers that can provide massive amounts of computing resources and storage at enterprise scale.

Margin expansion — A rise in the percentage of revenue that a company earns as profit.

Pricing power — A company’s ability to manipulate the price of a product or service in the marketplace by controlling the level of supply, demand, or both.

Replacement cycle — The cycle of replacing assets or products as they approach the end of their effective working lives.

Tokens — Units of data used by artificial intelligence large language models to process data and generate text or other outputs.

Vendor financing / trade credit — When a vendor lends money to a customer who uses that cash to purchase the vendor’s products or services.

About Scout Investments

For more than three decades, Scout’s investment teams have actively managed a distinct suite of equity strategies by applying repeatable, time-tested processes steeped in rigorous research and analysis.

M-853958 Exp. 5/15/2026