May 26, 2026: Follow the earnings, respect the rates

BY MATT ORTON, CFA, AND JOEY DEL GUERCIO, CFA^{1, 2}

Key takeaways

• AI remains the market’s growth engine: Strong earnings momentum in semiconductors and the broader AI infrastructure continues to drive market leadership and upside potential.

• Rates are becoming a bigger headwind: Rising yields and inflation concerns could fuel volatility and make markets more sensitive to economic data and US Federal Reserve policy.

• Selectivity matters in a bifurcated market: Investors should focus on high-quality companies with durable earnings growth rather than simply chasing market momentum.

 

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Resilience remains the defining feature of this market, even as the pace of the rally has begun to moderate. The S&P 500 Index has now advanced for eight consecutive weeks off the cease-fire low but gains over the past two weeks have been less than 2%. With the holiday-shortened catalyst calendar, equities are more exposed to positioning, interest rates, and geopolitical news. Importantly, leadership continues to track earnings.

We believe that leaning into artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (capex) beneficiaries may be used as a way to gain upside exposure to the market and diversified exposure to the AI theme, and this remains the case as semiconductors have continued to lead markets higher globally.

Unfortunately, this is not a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats environment. Bifurcation remains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 earnings revisions running at very strong levels, largely driven by the AI capex complex. That doesn’t undermine the broader bull case, but it reinforces the need to be selective. Elevated yields, an up-trending dollar, and a rally that is increasingly extended on the positioning front argue against chasing upside. We believe investors should continue to own what is working while using periods of weakness to add to high-quality companies opportunistically where earnings momentum remains durable, rather than simply chasing strength indiscriminately. Trends in rates argue for a more thoughtful approach to portfolio diversification, one that is increasingly tactical and active as rate volatility rises.

Why rates still matter for stocks

The past two weeks served as a reminder that rates still matter for equity markets, and that they will likely play a more prominent role in driving the price action across risk assets moving forward. There are also some signs that we may be in the early stages of a regime shift as the market’s rate sensitivity is increasing. Until recently, price action and macroeconomic data pointed to a durable expansion backdrop, with corporate earnings — not oil prices or the energy supply shock — remaining the primary driver of risk assets. That has allowed markets to absorb higher real rates and break-evens reasonably well.

Now, however, the risk is that higher yields increasingly transition from providing a signal of resilient growth to being a source of tighter financial conditions. Stronger US economic data, a potential repricing of term premiums, and a more hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve as its focus shifts from labor market concerns to inflation concerns could all accelerate that change. In that environment, selectivity becomes even more important, because the same rate backdrop that has supported risk-taking could start to become a headwind. Investors should exercise caution before deploying cash, but it also seems likely that we’ll see additional volatility that creates opportunity. We continue to favor assets that are levered to the most dominant secular growth trends where the earnings growth rate can outpace the increase in rates.

 

There’s still room for optimism

While the rate outlook has the potential to act as a headwind, earnings growth — the most important driver of returns — has remained incredibly strong. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 now stands at 28.4% for the first quarter, the highest since the post-pandemic reopening. Strength at the top has been a key driver of this eye-popping growth rate, but the broader market is also showing strength. The Magnificent Seven companies reported earnings growth of 63.2% for the first quarter, while the rest of the index delivered a blended growth rate of 22.5%, exceeding expectations for the broader S&P 500 heading into earnings season. Furthermore, the broader market has been overshadowed by the earnings-led surges across most of the semiconductor complex and AI capex beneficiaries. Energy remains the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 year to date by a meaningful margin (+31.5%), and there are six sectors posting double-digit returns. Healthcare and financials are the only sectors down in 2026 — and healthcare is the only sector reporting negative year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth, while financials have dealt with the overhang from private credit concerns. Additionally, concerns are mounting as energy and inflation begin to surface in company guidance, creating a growing source of pressure. There are still more consumer companies to report this week, which may provide some clarity. That said, the main takeaway is that this is a strong market with broad earnings strength that is translating into widespread gains in prices.

 

Investment playbook

The market backdrop has been quite interesting as AI-related investment trends strengthened sharply this month. Positioning has become crowded, and some signs of fatigue highlight that the market might be due for some consolidation. This could be an opportunity for investors given that analysts have significantly increased their 2027 capex growth expectations. There also has been a surge in the performance of the most speculative, non-profitable companies, reinforcing the perception that the market may need to pause, while also signaling a willingness among investors to take on risk. Some consolidation would indeed be healthy, but significant weakness seems unlikely given elevated hopes for a deal with Iran, as well as the potential impact of the mega SpaceX IPO (and potentially others) soon. Here are two areas of focus for us in this environment:

• The AI buildout trade. There is strong evidence that AI supply chain bottlenecks persist, and this is where we have seen the strongest earnings momentum and positive revisions. AI models are rapidly commoditizing around the world with more than 15 of the most advanced frontier-class models now at, or near, equivalent capabilities while open-source adoption is lowering entry costs and expanding inference demand. All of this increases the number of entities running AI and strengthens infrastructure pricing power while increased agentic adoption adds to token demand. Bottlenecks remain across power distribution, memory, and technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) hardware supply, while demand for central processing units (CPUs) continues to rise. Many of the bears still question the return on invested capital and valuations of the hyperscalers given the short depreciation cycles of all the chips that are being produced; however, the data doesn’t support that. Because scarcity is high right now, older graphics processing unit (GPU) rental costs are increasing, likely exacerbated by explosive agentic use. However, investors should be conscious of the move in rates, especially as economic data is released in the next two weeks will likely be stronger than expected. Any weakness across these groups of companies would provide an opportunity for investors to get or increase exposure.

• Beware of the cyclical short squeeze. If there’s a deal with Iran over the next week, it’s likely that the most cyclical parts of the market will have a knee-jerk reaction higher. There are many unloved parts of the market that have been tossed aside in favor of the AI momentum winners over the past two months. However, consumer relief will not be immediate, and the impact of significant energy disruption will last for quite some time. This points to the need for selectivity when rotating into cyclicals, favoring areas with durable improvements in earnings and profitability while fading moves that lack fundamental support.

  Instead, investors should assess where there are durable trends exist across cyclicals — miners look attractive given their strong earnings momentum, particularly among those with exposure to commodities essential to the AI and power buildout. Banks also have lagged and could represent another area with more durable tailwinds, especially if there’s a resolution in the Middle East.

What to watch

The calendar is somewhat lighter on both the economic and earnings fronts, with holiday-shortened weeks in the US and UK. With the earnings season largely complete, markets will be increasingly subject to macro and geopolitical catalysts for price action. Inflation data remains in focus with US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) as well as price and inflation readings from Australia, Tokyo, and the largest individual euro-area countries (e.g., Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The core PCE reading in the US comes after hot readings for consumer and producer prices, making it an important gauge for the direction of yields, especially at the front end of the curve.

 

¹ Matt Orton, CFA, is Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. Joey Del Guercio, CFA, is Research Analyst at Raymond James Investment Management.

² Unless otherwise indicated, all data cited is sourced from Bloomberg as of May 22, 2026.

Risk Information:
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures:
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks.

International investing presents specific risks, such as currency fluctuations, differences in financial accounting standards, and potential political and economic instability. These risks are further accentuated in emerging market countries where risks can also include possible economic dependency on revenues from particular commodities or on international aid or development assistance, currency transfer restrictions, and liquidity risks related to lower trading volumes.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Links are provided for informational purposes only.

Definitions
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — A measure of the prices that US consumers pay for goods and services. The PCE price index, released monthly by the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, is known for capturing inflation or deflation across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.

Core PCE, officially known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding Food and Energy, Price Index — A measure of the prices that US consumers pay for goods and services, not including two categories — food and energy — where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. The core PCE price index is watched closely by the US Federal Reserve as it conducts monetary policy.

Indices
Nasdaq-100 Index — Includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. It does not contain securities of financial companies including investment companies.

S&P 493 — the S&P 500 excluding the seven largest, high-performing stocks, the Magnificent Seven, to provide a clearer view of the broader US stock market.

S&P 500 Index — Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

 

M-943483 Exp. 9/26/2026

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May 18, 2026: Is the bond market threatening the stock market?

BY MATT ORTON, CFA, AND JOEY DEL GUERCIO, CFA^{1, 2}

Key takeaways

• Rising bond yields and persistent inflation are becoming the biggest near-term risk for markets, with higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty pressuring both stocks and US Treasuries.

• Growth stocks driven by artificial intelligence (AI) continue to lead the market because of strong earnings and durable demand, but investors should stay selective and focus on companies with real pricing power and earnings resilience.

• Market leadership remains narrow and concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and data-center beneficiaries, while broader sectors and small caps face growing pressure from higher rates and stretched positioning.

 

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We’re approaching the final stages of earnings season, and there are macroeconomic trends that will be increasingly difficult to ignore once the major idiosyncratic catalysts have largely passed.

Positioning now sits in stretched optimism territory. This is after a meaningful rally following the Middle East ceasefire at the end of March. Unfortunately, the lack of progress on negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into elevated inflation readings and rising inflation expectations. The reality of higher-for-longer energy prices and increased uncertainty could force risk assets to question current positioning.

Longer-dated yields rallied substantially around the world as a result of the macro backdrop with a meaningful breakout at the back end of the yield curve last week. US 10-year Treasury yields surged more than 10 basis points (bps) on Friday to 4.6%, bringing the weekly gain to nearly 25 bps. The equity market has already been quite narrow with significant gains across the artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (capex) beneficiaries and almost everything else treading water at best. This has led to a 10% dispersion between the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index and the S&P 500® Equal Weight Index since the March lows.

However, and perhaps counterintuitively, the rise in rates only adds to our conviction to invest in growth assets. That’s because earnings growth needs to outrun the rise in the discount rate for the rally to continue. Growth stocks have not outperformed based on hope, but on strong earnings results and forward guidance. Still, not all growth assets are equal; many are simply long-duration bond proxies. Investors should focus on growth assets with genuine pricing power and secular earnings durability that could continue to outrun rates. That continues to point to the infrastructure and model layers of the AI super-cycle.

Economic data last week continued to highlight the resilience of the US economy. However, it also highlighted the challenges of getting inflation back on a downward trajectory given the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East. There are risks in Treasuries right now, particularly at the back end of the curve, with the 30-year Treasury yield decisively breaking above 5% last week. Risks going forward include inflation expectations pushing higher, term premiums rising, and holders of long-end Treasuries becoming more price-sensitive. The market also has a history of testing the new US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, and it’s unlikely this time will be different for Kevin Warsh.

Not surprisingly, the jump in yields last week led to renewed dollar strength, which further pressured the gold trade and led to some profit taking across the metals complex. This all points to an increased likelihood of pressure on risk assets in the short-term until these trends can start to reverse. The move in yields also highlights the potential benefits of thinking more broadly about diversification as correlations between stocks and bonds remain positive. We’ve focused on this risk all year and the related need to diversify not only across asset classes, but across geographies, sectors, and industries. The moves in equities and rates last week highlight the importance of this going forward.

These cross-asset trends led to the sharpest daily decline on Friday for the S&P 500 Index since March 27. The now seven-week winning streak is on shaky ground. The increase in rate volatility and the re-emergence of stretched positioning should not be dismissed, particularly after a rally that left large-cap tech, semiconductors, and parts of the small-cap complex vulnerable to any move higher in yields.

That said, this still looks more like a reason to be selective than a reason to abandon risk. The key distinction remains earnings. Higher rates are more problematic for low-quality, rate-sensitive businesses where balance sheets and margins are under pressure. Companies still delivering positive earnings revisions, durable revenue growth, and operating leverage can continue to work even in a less-forgiving market. That argues against chasing broad beta in tech or small caps after sharp rallies, but it also argues against selling the opportunity set indiscriminately. Investors should consider using downside opportunistically, particularly in secular growth leaders, AI infrastructure beneficiaries, quality cyclicals, and select small caps where earnings are inflecting rather than merely reverting to the mean. The playbook is not binary rotation or de-risking; it is balance with discipline. The market can withstand higher rates if earnings continue to broaden, but dispersion is likely to remain elevated, and that makes selectivity the most important risk-management tool investors have right now.

 

Investment playbook

The bond market now seems like the biggest threat to the stock market. Unless longer-dated yields start to reverse their breakouts from last week and the dollar rally pauses, we should expect some sideways chop or consolidation. Equity positioning also has become extended. This decreases the likelihood of an explosive rally on the next leg higher like we saw after the ceasefire in the Middle East. There has been broad and global cyclical deterioration, leaving indices increasingly dependent on a shrinking cohort of beneficiaries from AI, semiconductors, and data centers. We continue to believe that these are the parts of the market where investors should largely be focused rather than trying to position for a grand rotation that has no reason to materialize based on fundamentals. Even small caps have recently been led by strength across the growth complex, but the cohort’s strong relative performance got a check last week from rising rates that present a real risk going forward. These parts of the market need a healthy pause, after which investors should look to use downside to keep positioning in secular growth winners. However, we must stay vigilant monitoring risk, especially across the parabolic semiconductor winners over the last month. Meaningful call option volumes, large exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and dealer hedging activity could all lead to some painful re-risking for which many investors might not be prepared. In this environment, here are two key areas of playbook focus:

• AI vs. everything else. We have been bullish on the AI capex beneficiary complex. The rally has been incredibly strong, but it is entitled to a pause or a period of mild consolidation. Semiconductors continue to generate the broadest and most consistent relative highs across technology. Construction and engineering, electrical equipment, and machinery were the areas of strength within industrials with nearly all tied to AI infrastructure spending. On the flip side, financials have been weak with banks dominating the relative lows, from money center banks through regional and community tiers. That isn’t encouraging from a macro perspective. We also have two critical earnings reports that will define the AI vs. everything else trade in the near term. Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the bell.³ The market reaction will be very important for market psychology, especially the stocks tied to AI bottlenecks. On Thursday morning, we get results from consumer giant Walmart. This will be especially helpful for investors to get a reading on the state of the consumer and the trends due to inflationary pressures and increasing bifurcation from the K-shaped economy. Consumer spending drives more than two-thirds of the US economy. If the shopper cracks, will there be support from macro laggards if and when the semiconductor trade blows off?

• The potential for international diversification: The dominance of AI has also been reflected overseas with emerging markets being the main beneficiaries, specifically those countries exposed to the bottleneck capex supply chain. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are the supply-side expression of the AI capex trade leaving information technology as effectively the only source of alpha. Almost every other sector has been a drag, especially financials and consumer sectors. European underperformance has stemmed from a relative underweight to these themes while Japan has more balanced exposure. However, breadth has actually been improving across the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East) Net Index. Materials and energy have contributed to positive breadth alongside tech, led by Australian miners and European integrated energy companies. That aligns with the breakout in industrial commodities and resilient oil prices. The MSCI EAFE’s structurally lower weight to information technology, a headwind for years, could be less of a disadvantage from a diversification perspective should we see the AI capex trade take a breather. How the narrative shifts will be key to near-term relative performance. Either we get some positive clarity on the Middle East conflict, which will help large-cap quality companies in Europe catch-up, or the situation deepens and recent winners begin to suffer. Getting back to a more neutral stance to EAFE is now fair given the widening gap between US and European Union (EU) positioning. Emerging markets look increasingly uneven given the dominance of Korea and Taiwan in the rally, which also have risks with a meaningful rise in domestic flow momentum. India also remains unattractive in emerging markets right now, especially should the energy shock persist given its sensitivity to higher oil prices. Asian emerging markets would certainly be the main beneficiary of lower oil prices, calmer geopolitics, and continued semiconductor export strength, but we prefer to stay neutral on broad emerging markets beta rather than chase the rally at current levels.

What to watch

Earnings – Nvidia and Walmart.

US economic data – April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes (watch for insight into the dissents), and the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

Global data – April inflation data from Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan. May preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports in Europe.

Central bank speakers – US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (Tuesday and Friday), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson (Tuesday).

In Europe, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane makes two closely watched appearances. His latest line has been deliberately balanced, not fully endorsing current market pricing, but also not pushing back hard against it. That makes any nuance important.

 

¹ Matt Orton, CFA, is Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. Joey Del Guercio, CFA, is Research Analyst at Raymond James Investment Management.

² Unless otherwise indicated, all data cited is sourced from Bloomberg as of May 15, 2026.

³ This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the companies or investment products mentioned herein.

Risk Information:
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures:
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks.

International investing presents specific risks, such as currency fluctuations, differences in financial accounting standards, and potential political and economic instability. These risks are further accentuated in emerging market countries where risks can also include possible economic dependency on revenues from particular commodities or on international aid or development assistance, currency transfer restrictions, and liquidity risks related to lower trading volumes.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Links are provided for informational purposes only.

Definitions
S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a survey-based economic indicator that provides timely insights into business conditions and economic trends across manufacturing, services, and construction sectors worldwide.

University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment — based on monthly telephone surveys in which at least 500 consumers in the continental United States are asked 50 questions about what they think now and what their expectations are for their personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. Their responses are used to calculate monthly measures of consumer sentiment that can be compared to a base value of 100 set in 1966.

Indices
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East) Net Index — Measures the performance of performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the United States and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Net Index subtracts any foreign taxes applicable to U.S. citizens but not applicable to citizens in the overseas country.

S&P 500 Index — Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

S&P 500^®® Equal Weight Index — the equal-weight version of the S&P 500. It includes the same constituents as the capitalization-weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is allocated a fixed weight, or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

 

M-940157 Exp. 9/18/2026

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May 11, 2026: Party like it’s 1998

BY MATT ORTON, CFA, AND JOEY DEL GUERCIO, CFA^{1, 2}

Key takeaways

• Global equities pushed higher despite the lack of progress in the Persian Gulf, with a noteworthy bifurcation between the beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (capex) and almost everything else.

• While we continue to caution against indiscriminately chasing the market or the semiconductor trade, we would also be careful about betting against surging AI and semiconductor companies where the earnings story is still improving and retail flows are increasing.

• Given the resilient economic backdrop coupled with formidable earnings results and the beginning of retail flows returning in earnest, investors should continue thinking about tilting toward risk assets and dips that can be bought.

 

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Historical market references are nearly all hyperbolic and not usually accurate — particularly those citing the tech bubble — which is why they generally make us bristle. However, 1998 is useful for comparisons. Russia’s debt default and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management were violent macroeconomic shocks that ultimately proved to be short-term distractions from a much larger advance led by technology stocks, although the underpinnings of that advance were quite different from what’s taking place right now.

Today, the Iran-driven pullback has created a similar setup: Geopolitical headlines still matter intraday, particularly now that earnings season is winding down and NVIDIA is the last major earnings report on deck.³ The upcoming US–China summit is another important macro catalyst for Iran, trade, and technology.

Global equities continued pushing higher despite the lack of progress in the Persian Gulf, but last week the bifurcation between the beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (capex) and almost everything else in the market was on full display, particularly for suppliers experiencing the largest bottlenecks.

The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index^™ rose more than 10% last week, gaining 65% from its March lows. While the S&P 500^® Equal Weight Index was mostly flat last week, it has lagged the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index (+8.6% versus +16.8% since March 30). We continue to believe that investors should think about leaning into the strong momentum of AI-related trades that have been backed by robust earnings results and guidance. Fund flows are also likely to continue supporting this bifurcation as retail investors finally return to the market.

Earnings and positioning haven’t been the only supports to the market — economic data, notably Friday’s strong April jobs report, has been surprising to the upside. Given the resilient economic backdrop coupled with formidable earnings results and the beginning of retail flows returning in earnest, investors should consider tilting toward risk assets and dips that can be bought.

The equity market’s reaction function has changed since 1998. Risk assets are increasingly trading more on positive headlines than negative ones, which tells us the market-implied probability of a conflict-induced global recession has started to fade. Re-escalation risk should not be ignored, but that risk can be hedged more directly by long positions in energy stocks or other AI-related commodities rather than by the reflexive de-risking of equities.

The stronger message is that momentum remains supported by fundamentals and flows. The semiconductor rally, up roughly 65% from the March lows, resembles the 68% move from October 1998 lows into late November of that year. The current advance has been driven by earnings per share (EPS) upgrades rather than by a meaningful price-to-earnings re-rating. That matters because rallies can run longer and further than investors might expect when price momentum, positive earnings revisions, and positioning all move in the same direction.

The flow backdrop also looks healthier than prior rallies. The post-Liberation Day rebound, in April 2025, was driven by retail investors who were later chased by institutional investors. The current rally appears to have been led by systematic and institutional re-engagement while retail participation remained more subdued. The velocity of the rebound, combined with strong first-quarter earnings reports, wealth effects, seasonal tailwinds, and tax refund support, has created fertile ground for retail inflows to extend the move.

We continue to caution against indiscriminately chasing the market or the semiconductor trade, but we also would be careful about betting against further upside in AI and semiconductor companies where the earnings story is still improving and retail flows are increasing. We expect opportunities to use downside opportunistically, and that remains our preferred way to continue building exposure to risk assets in the market.

 

In the United States, the macro backdrop should continue providing tailwinds for the rally to continue. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has jumped higher over the past few weeks, and last Friday’s payrolls data was the latest reassuring news. The year-to-date trend in non-healthcare employment continued, which is important because the overwhelming majority of the past two years’ net new jobs have been created in either the healthcare or public sectors. This year’s labor market resilience broadening out is a welcome sight.

The payroll report also added to the list of reasons why we’re unlikely to see an interest rate cut early in US Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s tenure at the Fed, but the bar for rate hikes already seems high without incoming inflation data really starting to heat up. It’s clear that labor market strength is reinforcing the view that the US economy can absorb tighter financial conditions and episodic energy price spikes without a material slowdown. The incredible strength of corporate earnings — first-quarter blended EPS data for S&P 500 Index companies stands at 27.7% — suggest that the companies benefitting the most from secular growth could continue leading.

Investment playbook

We head into another week with headlines in the driver’s seat, and sentiment is likely to waver between extreme optimism and pessimism over the Strait of Hormuz re-opening, which could induce a bit of volatility. We favor sticking with the current playbook of leaning into secular growth winners — notably the AI capex beneficiaries — and finding ways to complement this exposure across various sectors and industries like energy, materials, and chemicals.

• AI capex beneficiaries. We have seen this as a core overweight for quite some time, and recent earnings coupled with flow dynamics continue to provide tailwinds. More than $725 billion is expected to be spent by hyperscalers this year, and recent gross domestic product (GDP) data from the first quarter highlighted its magnitude for the overall economy — AI-related capex contributed about 43% of US real GDP growth (or 1.15 percentage points of 2.7% total) year over year.

  It’s too hard to ignore the scale of this spending, which is likely to hold steady or increase throughout the year. It has also translated into powerful earnings growth downstream, particularly around the most acute bottlenecks such as computer memory, power, and optics. The extreme forward multiples for many of these companies have barely moved, which signals the strength of demand. We expect that the exuberant part of this rally is still to come as these moves are currently rooted in fundamentals that are meaningfully separated from the uncertainty in the Middle East.

  Also, don’t forget about the power and cooling requirements outside of the chip bottlenecks. A huge wall of power demand is coming from the hyperscalers with no signs of capex slowing, and compute demand seems insatiable. Cooling requirements will also continue to increase, which is a major reason why the electric equipment industry remains a key component of the AI investing theme. Bank of America recently estimated that in 2027 the capex boom will outpace the US national defense budget as a percentage of GDP.

• Can small caps continue outperforming? Our bullish thesis in small caps this year was predicated on earnings growth continuing to accelerate and eventually overtake large caps. We’ve seen both top- and bottom-line growth strengthen meaningfully for small caps, but the first-quarter surge in large-cap earnings results set an impossible bar to clear. That said, the trend in results is encouraging, particularly against the relatively benign economic backdrop seen in the United States. The Russell 2000^® Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 200 basis points (bps) since the market bottom in March and by 734 bps year to date (+15.81% versus +8.47%).

  Flows into small caps have been anemic despite the rally, and many investors remain underweight across their asset allocations. The challenges down the market-capitalization spectrum have been the recent narrowness of the market (tech is crushing everything) and the outperformance of low-quality companies. But if rates stay range-bound and the economy holds up, it could kickstart performance in biotechnology and regional banks. Investors should consider using weakness opportunistically, especially if it comes from geopolitics.

• In the power bottleneck, focus on data center enablers: As International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said, “The vase is broken, the damage is done,” with governments now reviewing energy strategies and shifting more aggressively toward renewables, nuclear power, and electrification. There is a strong belief that this transition has been sharply accelerated, and the multi-year backlogs from traditional behind-the-meter power providers only continue to grow. This allows companies to choose the highest-margin, longest-term projects with trusted partners, adding visibility to their earnings growth profile. Additionally, earnings across the clean energy complex are picking up again as there are delays getting data centers linked to the grid and regulations become increasingly cumbersome. Bring your own power is a theme that stands to gain traction, both in the US and abroad.

What to watch

Developments in the Middle East will remain front and center this week, but global inflation data should also be at the top of our monitors. We’ll get Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index readings from the US and China along with retail sales and industrial production data for the United States. Retail sales data will be scrutinized, and with gas prices continuing to rise, the results are likely to impact the direction of the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors. The first reading of first-quarter GDP for the United Kingdom will also be released this week.

 

¹ Matt Orton, CFA, is Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. Joey Del Guercio, CFA, is Research Analyst at Raymond James Investment Management.

² Unless otherwise indicated, all data cited is sourced from Bloomberg as of May 8, 2026.

³ This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the companies or investment products mentioned herein.

Risk Information:
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures:
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks.

International investing presents specific risks, such as currency fluctuations, differences in financial accounting standards, and potential political and economic instability. These risks are further accentuated in emerging market countries where risks can also include possible economic dependency on revenues from particular commodities or on international aid or development assistance, currency transfer restrictions, and liquidity risks related to lower trading volumes.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Links are provided for informational purposes only.

Indices
Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index — Reflects the degree to which recent U.S. economic data deviates from market expectations. A positive index reading reflects data that exceeds expectations. A negative index reading reflects data that falls short of expectations.

PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index^™ — A modified market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.

Russell 2000^® Index — Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000^® Index.

S&P 500 Index — Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

S&P 500^®® Equal Weight Index — the equal-weight version of the S&P 500. It includes the same constituents as the capitalization-weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is allocated a fixed weight, or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2026. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. Russell^® is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

 

M-936444 Exp. 9/11/2026

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May 4, 2026: Focus on the fundamentals

BY MATT ORTON, CFA, AND JOEY DEL GUERCIO, CFA^{1, 2}

Key takeaways

• Markets appear strong despite geopolitical risk, climbing to record highs, driven by AI-led earnings.

• The easy gains from the recent rally have likely passed as markets are entering a more balanced phase with elevated risks from inflation, geopolitics, and stretched positioning, which may increase volatility.

• Investors should remain selective, focusing on company-specific fundamentals, particularly those of AI capital expenditure beneficiaries and US mega-caps, while remaining cautious of regions and sectors more exposed to geopolitical and energy risks.

 

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As the conflict in the Middle East continues for the third month, there is little sign of a durable resolution on the horizon. Markets don’t seem too concerned, but this is no time for complacency. In an uncertain environment, we favor focusing on companies with the strongest fundamentals and the least exposure to war-driven risks.

Earnings season in the US so far has meaningfully exceeded expectations with strength most concentrated across the artificial intelligence (AI) value chain. This has supported risk assets and pushed several global indices to all-time highs. Markets are clearly giving the benefit of the doubt to the idea that the disruption will not lead to a significant interest-rate hiking cycle or a global recession. Incoming economic data is supportive, and the S&P 500 Index has climbed despite oil prices briefly touching a four-year high of more than $125 per barrel.

However, with the busiest week of earnings season now behind us and systematic positioning once again stretched, it appears that the easy money following the cease fire has largely been made. Investors should be alert to the instability of the status quo. While the path of least resistance remains higher following strong earnings results, the geopolitical stalemate risks feeding into economic data over time. Given the binary nature of potential outcomes, we believe it is increasingly important to focus on company-specific fundamentals and to lean into parts of the markets that are least exposed to the current conflict. This is why we continue to favor mega-caps and AI capital expenditure (capex) beneficiaries despite their strong recent gains. We also favor overweight positioning in the US given energy vulnerability across Europe and many Asian economies, though we believe markets with select AI and energy exposure still represent opportunities for portfolio diversification.

 

A surprisingly positive first quarter

First-quarter earnings results have been remarkable with robust revisions and guidance. Just over 60% of the S&P 500 companies have reported results and the blended earnings per share (EPS) growth rate stands at 27.1% — far ahead of the 13.1% consensus expectation coming into the quarter. Notably, 84% of companies have exceeded estimates, which drifted higher during the quarter. That’s the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since the 87% in the second quarter 0f 2021 as the economy recovered from the COVID shutdown. Importantly, seven sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth — including communication services (53.2%), information technology (50.0%), and consumer discretionary (39.0%). Profitability has been equally impressive — the blended net profit margin stands at a record 14.7%, above last quarter’s record 13.2%.

Some bears believe that earnings have overachieved and that eventually a stronger inflationary impulse due to the continued Strait of Hormuz blockade could hit earnings and profitability. While that is certainly a risk, why are the 2026 and 2027 S&P 500 revisions some of the strongest historically seen? If anything, we believe the bearish risks highlight the importance of selectivity and having a focus on where there are durable growth drivers. It should come as no surprise that these sectors and industries are responsible for the strong earnings results and guidance.

Inflation risks on the radar

While earnings momentum has pushed equities to record levels, other developments merit attention. Recent economic data highlights the resilience of the US economy but also suggests firmer inflationary pressures. The April Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report showed a sharp rise in the prices-paid component (driven by AI capex), which contributed to the dissents at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in favor of moving to a symmetric bias for the Federal Reserve. Near-term inflation swaps are trading at year-to-date highs, showing these pressures building, and tariffs are also re-entering the picture. The biggest risk is that long-term inflation expectations become unanchored in an environment where a prolonged continuation of above-target inflation seems likely. This certainly isn’t our base case, but it’s worth monitoring given how quickly risk assets have pushed higher and how bipolar the tape can be in the absence of other catalysts.

 

Investment playbook

The easy re-grossing seems mostly behind us. Flow and positioning set ups are now bifurcated, signaling a less-forgiving tape from here. We signaled the likelihood of increased bifurcation at the sector and industry level, which has played out, and this has the potential to increase in the coming weeks as investors scrutinize inbound results. Despite strong Magnificent Seven earnings, the debate is shifting to AI monetization, efficiency, and second-order beneficiaries. US semiconductors look crowded after a 40% run over the past few weeks, but data centers, grid, power, and AI infrastructure offer better asymmetry. Overseas, there appear to be opportunities to lean into the AI trade as well through select companies and markets like South Korea or Taiwan. But from a relative value perspective, we believe investors should remain overweight to the US until there is some clarity with respect to a resolution on the geopolitical front. Here are three areas of focus from our playbook:

• Continue leaning into the AI capex beneficiaries. This remains an important theme, especially given the most recent earnings results from the hyperscalers. Many of these names are extended — April was the best month for the Nasdaq 100^® since October 2022. But any weakness in the AI complex should be used opportunistically given the strength of guidance and the power of the current investment cycle. Across all the results from the past two weeks, nothing looks tremendously exciting about buying some of the dips in software. However, capex is tracking +33% year over year and with combined remaining performance obligations (RPOs) across the hyperscalers jumping to $2 trillion, we see more room to run, particularly in infrastructure, semiconductors, and energy and power.

• US over Europe, but don’t forget about other international markets. US over Europe is becoming the dominant relative-value expression as shifting macroeconomic policies and trends increasingly favor US leadership. On growth, accelerating enterprise AI adoption reinforces the US productivity advantage, with corporate use moving from experimentation to real deployment. On energy, the geopolitical shock is already forcing a reassessment of security, supply chains, and strategic autonomy. That matters for allocation: Europe’s energy vulnerability is no longer just a tail risk, but a persistent earnings and policy headwind. Flows are starting to reflect this shift, with European equity flows turning negative in April as investors rotate capital back to the US. We believe that this unwind is still in the early stages as this month’s outflows represent only 19% of year-to-date Europe inflows and 4% of cumulative inflows since January 2025. Additionally, it seems the market may be aligned with our view of a higher post-war oil-price equilibrium, supported by a post-conflict premium, restocking demand, and energy-sovereignty agendas. Accordingly, the case for extending US over Europe remains attractive. Additionally, a strong case remains for other developed international or emerging markets with exposure to the AI capex cycle or positive leverage to the commodity supercycle. Markets like Brazil have been strong performers given leverage to oil, metals, and grain while other markets like South Korea and Taiwan are long-term AI winners. Even Japan has positive leverage to the AI cycle as well as a robust financial sector that may benefit from future actions by the Bank of Japan.

• In the power bottleneck, focus on data center enablers: As International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said, “The vase is broken, the damage is done,” with governments now reviewing energy strategies and shifting more aggressively toward renewables, nuclear power, and electrification. There is a strong belief that this transition has been sharply accelerated, and the multi-year backlogs from traditional behind-the-meter power providers only continue to grow. This allows companies to choose the highest-margin, longest-term projects with trusted partners, adding visibility to their earnings growth profile. Additionally, earnings across the clean energy complex are picking up again as there are delays getting data centers linked to the grid and regulations become increasingly cumbersome. Bring your own power is a theme that stands to gain traction, both in the US and abroad.

What to watch

Earnings season will remain in focus with more than one-quarter of the S&P 500 still due to report.

Economic data releases will also keep investors busy, with this week’s highlight being the US nonfarm payroll report. Additionally, this week we will see the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and ADP^® National Employment Report™, both alternative checks on the state of the labor market. Finally, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will provide an important updated read on inflation expectations.

The schedule of Fed speakers includes Federal Reserve presidents: John Williams (New York), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago).

In Europe, attention turns to the UK local elections on May 7, with a focus on European Central Bank (ECB) speakers and the ECB Wage Tracker release.

 

¹ Matt Orton, CFA, is Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. Joey Del Guercio, CFA, is Research Analyst at Raymond James Investment Management.

² Unless otherwise indicated, all data cited is sourced from Bloomberg as of May 1, 2026.

Risk Information:
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Disclosures:
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for informational purposes only. There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, or other expenses, which would reduce performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses that would reduce return.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Raymond James Investment Management or any of its affiliates to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision, and you should not rely on it in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and make their own determinations together with their own professionals in those fields. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions, and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the broker/dealer or any affiliates. Nothing discussed or suggested should be construed as permission to supersede or circumvent any broker/dealer policies, procedures, rules, and guidelines.

Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Investing in small cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks.

International investing presents specific risks, such as currency fluctuations, differences in financial accounting standards, and potential political and economic instability. These risks are further accentuated in emerging market countries where risks can also include possible economic dependency on revenues from particular commodities or on international aid or development assistance, currency transfer restrictions, and liquidity risks related to lower trading volumes.

Commodity-linked investments may be more volatile and less liquid than the underlying instruments or measures, and their value may be affected by the performance of the overall commodities baskets as well as weather, disease, and regulatory developments.

Links are provided for informational purposes only.

Definitions
Consumer Price Index / CPI — Measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics bases the index on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 households and 22,000 retailers.

Core PCE, or core inflation — Officially known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), excluding Food and Energy, Price Index, is a measure of the prices that U.S. consumers pay for goods and services, not including two categories (food and energy) where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. Headline PCE data is the raw inflation figure reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE data measures inflation trends and is watched closely by the U.S. Federal Reserve as it conducts monetary policy.

Indices
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index — Measures the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The market-weighted index includes Treasuries, agencies, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), asset-backed securities (ABS) and investment-grade corporates.

MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ex USA Index — Measures large- and midcap representation across developed markets countries (excluding the US) and emerging markets countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US.

Russell 2000^® Index — Measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000^® Index.

S&P 500 Index — Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. It is a market-weighted index calculated on a total return basis with dividend reinvested. The S&&P 500 represents approximately 80% of the investable U.S. equity market.

S&P 500^®® Equal Weight Index — the equal-weight version of the S&P 500. It includes the same constituents as the capitalization-weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is allocated a fixed weight, or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

“Bloomberg^®” and the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Raymond James Investment Management. Bloomberg is not affiliated with Raymond James Investment Management, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend Raymond James Investment Management’s Markets in Focus Weekly Insights. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Raymond James Investment Management’s Markets in Focus Weekly Insights.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2026. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. Russell^® is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

 

M-932907 Exp. 9/4/2026

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